Mr. President, Please Use Tariffs to Promote Democracy in China

President Trump’s use of tariffs against China has primarily been framed as a tool to address trade imbalances, protect American industries, and punish what the U.S. sees as unfair Chinese trade practices. However, it is entirely possible that tariffs could also be leveraged to promote democratic reforms within China. Here’s how this strategy might work, based on recent developments and expert analysis.

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Economic Pressure as Leverage

• By imposing steep tariffs-recently raised to 145% on Chinese imports-Trump increases economic pressure on China’s export-driven economy. The resulting strain can lead to slower growth, job losses, and increased dissatisfaction among Chinese businesses and workers.

• Heightened political and economic risks from the trade war have already led to a 34% increase in foreign firm exits from China, signaling real economic pain and disruption.

  
  

Destabilizing Authoritarian Control

• Economic hardship can erode the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party, which has long based its authority on delivering economic prosperity. If tariffs significantly disrupt China’s economy, they could foster public discontent and create openings for calls for greater transparency, accountability, and, potentially, democratic reforms.

• Tariffs may also force Chinese leaders to reconsider their approach to governance and international relations, especially if economic pain translates into social unrest or elite dissatisfaction.

  
  

Encouraging Global Supply Chain Diversification

• As tariffs make Chinese goods more expensive, global companies may shift supply chains to other countries with more open political systems. This reduces China’s economic leverage and exposes its citizens to alternative models of governance and economic organization.

  
  

Limitations and Risks

• Tariffs are a blunt instrument, often causing collateral damage to both American and Chinese businesses, and can spark retaliatory cycles that are hard to break. China has responded with its own tariffs and non-tariff barriers, further escalating tensions and potentially harming global economic stability.

• There is no guarantee that economic pain will lead to democratization. The Chinese government has historically tightened control in times of crisis, using nationalism and propaganda to deflect blame onto foreign actors.

  
  

Conclusion

While tariffs could theoretically be used to pressure China toward democratic reforms by undermining the economic foundations of authoritarian rule, the approach is risky and indirect. Economic hardship may create opportunities for change, but it can also provoke backlash and entrench authoritarianism.

The effectiveness of tariffs as a tool for promoting democracy in China remains highly uncertain, and their primary impact so far has been economic disruption rather than political liberalization. Therefore, I strongly call on President Trump to enhance the pressure on the Chinese government to improve on human rights and freedom, which would be an effective way to promote democracy in China.